Asked by Shanna Daniels on Jul 12, 2024

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{Maintenance Company Narrative} Use the posterior probabilities for I3 in the previous question to recalculate the expected monetary value of each act,then determine the optimal act and the EMV*.

Posterior Probabilities

The probabilities of possible outcomes updated on the basis of new evidence or information.

Expected Monetary Value

The predicted value of a financial opportunity when accounting for all possible outcomes and their probabilities.

Optimal Act

The best possible action or decision, typically the one that maximizes the expected outcome or utility.

  • Calculate expected monetary value (EMV) with and without additional information.
  • Identify optimal decision acts based on calculated expected monetary values.
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Alisha DeVaunJul 14, 2024
Final Answer :
EMV (a1)= (0.32)(80)+ (0.40)(60)+ (0.28)(200)= 105.6 EMV (a2)= (0.32)(120)+ (0.40)(130)+ (0.28)(140)= 129.6 EMV (a3)= (0.32)(90)+ (0.40)(170)+ (0.28)(100)= 124.8 The optimal act is a2.Hence,EMV* = 129.6.