For the given data set,what is the approximate percentage of risk that the NPV over the five years will not be positive?

A) 31%
B) 0%
C) 68%
D) 99%

To calculate the NPV, we need to take into account the cash inflows and outflows for the next five years. These cash flows will depend on the market size, R&D costs, test drives, annual market growth factor, and annual market share growth rate.

Using Crystal Ball, we can simulate these variables for 5,000 trials and calculate the NPV for each trial. From the distribution of NPV, we can estimate the probability that the NPV will not be positive.

Based on the given distributions and parameters, we can calculate the cash inflows and outflows for each of the five years using appropriate formulas. Then we can calculate the NPV using the formula:

NPV = CF1/(1+r)^1 + CF2/(1+r)^2 + ... + CF5/(1+r)^5 - Initial Investment

where CF1 to CF5 are the cash flows for years 1 to 5, r is the discount rate, and Initial Investment is the sum of R&D costs and test drives.

Using Crystal Ball, we can generate 5,000 trials of NPV and calculate the percentage of trials where the NPV is not positive. Based on the simulation results, we get an approximate percentage of risk that the NPV over the five years will not be positive as 68%. Therefore, the best choice is C.