Asked by muttineni lalith on Jul 25, 2024

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A PERT project has 45 activities, 19 of which are on the critical path. The estimated time for the critical path is 120 days. The sum of all activity variances is 64, while the sum of variances along the critical path is 36. The probability that the project can be completed between days 108 and 120 is

A) -2.00.
B) 0.0227.
C) 0.1058.
D) 0.4773.
E) 0.9773.

Critical Path

The longest sequence of activities in a project plan, which determines the shortest possible duration for completing the project.

Probability

A measure of the likelihood that an event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain).

  • Gauge and detail the likelihood of meeting project timelines by applying PERT analytical methods.
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sadia ashfaqJul 28, 2024
Final Answer :
D
Explanation :
First, we need to find the standard deviation of the critical path, which is the square root of the sum of variances along the critical path (36):
sqrt(36) = 6

Next, we need to find the z-score for the range of days in question (108 to 120):
z = (x - μ) / σ, where x is the upper limit of the range (120), μ is the mean (120), and σ is the standard deviation (6).
z = (120 - 120) / 6 = 0

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, we can find the probability of a z-score of 0:
P(z = 0) = 0.5

Therefore, the probability that the project can be completed between days 108 and 120 is 0.5, or 50%. Converted to a decimal, this is 0.5.

The correct answer is D (0.4773), which is the closest option to 0.5.