Asked by Vanessa Pressat on Jul 09, 2024
Verified
A company manufacturing electronic components for home entertainment systems buys electrical connectors from three suppliers.It buys 23% of the connectors from supplier A,31% from supplier B,and 46% from supplier C.It finds that 1% of the connectors from supplier A are defective,2% of the connectors from supplier B are defective,and 3% of the connectors from supplier C are defective.If a customer buys one of these components and finds that the connector is defective,what is the probability that it came from supplier B?
A) 0.385
B) 0.278
C) 0.31
D) 0.02
E) 0.103
Electrical Connectors
Devices that join electrical circuits together, allowing electricity to flow from one element to another.
Supplier B
A reference to an unnamed second supplier in a given context, possibly in comparison to other suppliers.
Defective
Referring to a product or item that has a flaw or fault that prevents it from functioning correctly or as intended.
- Review data tables to identify particular probabilities.
- Investigate the contribution of outside influences, including weather or imperfect components, to the odds of certain outcomes.
Verified Answer
P(B|D) = P(D|B) * P(B) / (P(D|A) * P(A) + P(D|B) * P(B) + P(D|C) * P(C))
where P(B|D) is the probability that the defective connector came from supplier B given that it is defective, P(D|B) is the probability that a connector from supplier B is defective (2%), P(B) is the probability that a connector comes from supplier B (31%), P(D|A) is the probability that a connector from supplier A is defective (1%), P(A) is the probability that a connector comes from supplier A (23%), P(D|C) is the probability that a connector from supplier C is defective (3%), and P(C) is the probability that a connector comes from supplier C (46%).
Plugging in the values, we get:
P(B|D) = (0.02 * 0.31) / (0.01 * 0.23 + 0.02 * 0.31 + 0.03 * 0.46) = 0.278
Therefore, the probability that the defective connector came from supplier B is 0.278 or approximately 0.28. Therefore, the best choice is B.
Learning Objectives
- Review data tables to identify particular probabilities.
- Investigate the contribution of outside influences, including weather or imperfect components, to the odds of certain outcomes.
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